10/11 Conf Call w/RC - Analytics & Penalties

[Big R]

As mentioned at the tail end of the Duquesne FBI thread, I did ask RC about the interception in the end zone, so check there for that brief discussion. Then we got into a very interesting Q&A about analytics, penalties and more. I asked a question and, after RC’s lengthy answer, KT asked a follow-up question. I’ve included that conversation below. Dan then asked another, related, follow-up question delving into our high conference standing for defensive interceptions, and RC’s answer to that question was very enlightening and interesting as well. I will let Dan post about that if he wishes.

GH: This is an analytics question. I I thought I heard you say something, maybe three weeks ago that, analytically, penalties don't play that big a role in the game. Is that true? Is that what the analytics show?

RC: So – some. I think for the most part, defensive penalties on average are going to affect winning percentage a little more than offensive penalties, and the majority of defensive penalties are 15 yards, so that's probably why - it's face masks, it’s personal fouls, it’s pass interference, which are explosive plays. What do we talk about? 15 yards or more explosive plays - that's what affects winning percentage and scoring, right? That's why defensive penalties affect it a little bit more than offensive penalties, but directly? No - penalties are not one of the top five statistics in whether or not you're going to win the game. It doesn't mean it doesn't affect you individually on those drives, but again, like an offensive false start - I mean first and 15 is still doable, you know what I mean? Second and 12 is still doable. So, it's not going to affect you as much as a first or second down sack that might be a 7-yard loss, or an explosive play given up on defense is going to be more of a problem than a defensive ‘whatever’. Also, the defensive penalty is usually going to carry an automatic first down which keeps the possession moving which is the most important part right? We talk about possessions, explosives, and then first and second down sacks. So, I think those those things DO matter. I think the biggest thing, Rich, when you talk about penalties and how it affects you winning and losing - it's not necessarily how many you have, or the yards, or even when you have them (which could affect you a little bit more) - it's what do they mean, right? Why do you get penalties? Because you're undisciplined; because you don't pay attention to your fundamentals, and your technique, and your alignment, and your assignment. That's going to affect your winning, because trust me, that'll show up other places. That's not something that just happens on penalties and doesn't happen every other play. If you're an undisciplined team you're probably going to have a lot of penalties and it will affect you winning and losing eventually. The penalty may not specifically, but that attention to detail will.

GH: Yeah, that's interesting I I just thought I heard you say analytics had some role in it so that's really interesting to hear how that how that plays out thank you.

RC: It doesn't mean we want penalties. I think we are, like, third in the country in penalizations, and we're pretty good at it because, again, I do take pride in us being a disciplined football team and a smart football team. So, we're going to align correctly. You know, most of our penalties have been of the pass interference variety which are going to happen - those are effort-based penalties. We’ve got to keep working on those techniques, though, so that we don't get in those situations. Keep working on our communication so we're aligned faster so maybe we're in a better football position by the time we get out there and in coverage, right? Those things all do matter. And, so, I think they're all linked to “discipline, alignment, assignment, technique, fundamentals”.

GH: On PI’s, and you even see it in the NFL, one of the hardest things maybe for a defender to do is to turn at the right time, right?

RC: It is difficult - a lot of body control involved.

KT: Hey, Ryan, just out of curiosity - what are the top factors that that that determine the outcome? I would imagine turnovers is number one.

RC: Turnovers is number one and it's a hard stop after that - it's not even close, turnovers is number one. Possessions and possessions gained, which is why we're probably a little bit more aggressive on 4th downs and field goals and punts. You know, even last week, we probably should have gone for a long field goal instead of that punt that we gained 20 yards on. You're gaining 20 yards of field position. You're flipping the possession, but the possession flipped anyway. You basically gained 1 “X” play with the possibility of getting a long field goal for three three points, and so that was a toss-up and I went with the punt.
There's obviously turnovers, possessions, and then it's explosives, at that point. You know, red zone touchdown percentage matters a lot; red zone percentage doesn't matter much at all to winning, but red zone touchdown percentage matters. So, the possible points that you have available - scoring as many as you can of those possible points is really what matters the most once you get in that that area.
And then, you know third downs don't matter a ton, directly correlated (obviously you stay on the field you're score points), but as far as directly correlating to winning, third downs is not as important.
And then, first and second down sacks - we've noticed, with the stats that we take, are much, much more important than just total sacks because on 3rd down the possession’s already changed - you either throw an incomplete pass, or you get sacked, all you're losing is 4 yards there - it's not losing a possession. And so, it's really about that. It's about keeping the ball in your hands and scoring when you have it. And the way you score faster is by explosive plays and limiting negative losses on 1st and 2nd down.

KT: That's interesting thank you.

RC: You got it. Again, this is my understanding of analytics and our experience with analytics and what we believe in. This is not me standing on the soapbox and saying I've done these stats. We have a company that does them with us and and teaches us a lot and each week we get reports on reports, and we learn about the things we did well, the things we probably could have done a little better or differently, and then we learned about what everybody else in the country did, and that's my job on Fridays as a head coach - I go over every scenario that happened in the NFL and in college, and we talk about it as a staff and things that would affect us, or might have affected us in the past, and might affect us in the future, so that, hopefully, we make the right decisions and learn from other people's mistakes and positives throughout the country as well.

Dan, your turn - take it away!

[Info Hound]

The more I hear from Ryan, the more that I like him.

I'm not sure I understand all of that, but I believe he does.

[HENJOHN]

Yes Great stuff. Thanks for taking the time to share this interview Rich.

[Caribbean Hen]

Yes Great stuff. Thanks for taking the time to share this interview Rich.

Yes indeed and thanks BigR for taking the time to type all that out

With all the analytics involved how long will it be before AI is calling the plays? Probably already happening

[Section J]

The more I hear from Ryan, the more that I like him.

I'm not sure I understand all of that, but I believe he does.

Yessir, I'm going to have to read that a third & 4th time for sure. Brainiac is what I'd call him. Kudos Rich

[Bluewyn Gold]

Interesting read.

[Cluck U]

Thanks for posting. Fun read.

Pretty basic stuff, really.

The exception that I have with his thinking is that False Starts aren’t so bad. Next time, please ask what the different success rates are for getting a First Down between First and 10 and First and 15. With limited possessions in the game, that has to take its toll. Maybe not as much against poor defenses, but that difference has to show up against better, disciplined defenses (which are generally what you’d see deeper in the playoffs). Good defenses are, almost by definition, not giving up the explosive plays, so backing up an extra 5-yards is not a small thing.

The other thing was…Carty said they didn’t execute well on that silly play near the goal line. Yes, he said it was a bad call…but don’t overlook his comment about execution. That play, and others like it, has been on Carty’s menu for a long time, and I don’t expect it to disappear.

[Henzone]

You can be an analytical nerd and still be a good football coach. To be a very good football coach your gut will tell you what needs to be done and when. Tubby used to say" If you can't sneak a 4th & 1 you have no offense."

[UDan]

Dan then asked another, related, follow-up question delving into our high conference standing for defensive interceptions, and RC’s answer to that question was very enlightening and interesting as well. I will let Dan post about that if he wishes.

Thanks, Rich!

I should have gotten to posting this sooner, but Coach was pretty emphatic about the INTs. Plus, his wish for more fumbles forced/recovered came true vs NC A&T:

https://x.com/DanSteenkamer/status/1713 ... 47916?s=20

https://twitter.com/DanSteenkamer/statu ... 47916?s=20